What kind of forecasting models have proven to be most effective for you?

I think about forecasting and making it effective in three large areas: (1) process, (2) tools/models, and (3) data. Without getting each of those right, no "perfect model" will make forecasting great. My experience forecasting at Intercom is different from what we did at LinkedIn so it's important to think about your specific context and needs before replicating any one forecasting approach. Process: At LinkedIn and Intercom, we run a forecasting cadence that met the needs of the business. This ...Read More

The “bottom-up” process (i.e. the sales teams’ forecast rollup) gives real time sentiment from customers and the field but can be biased by human-led judgment. The “top-down” process (i.e. analyses of consolidated data) brings objectivity and separates signal from noise, though it ignores information that is not yet captured in the data (e.g. a large deal that will be pushed to the next quarter). Over time, I found that a combination of “bottom-up” forecasting with “top-down” forecasting is the ...Read More

The most effective forecasting model really depends on the specific context of the business – things like data maturity, CRM data quality, sales cycle length, customer segment.. ect. There's really isn't a one size fits all approach. With that said, here’s a breakdown of my commonly used models and where they tend to work best: Pacing Forecast: Summary: Predicts future outcomes based on prior performance in comparable periods (e.g., last quarter's pacing at the same point in time). Best For: In- ...Read More

After trying various approaches, I've found that blending multiple forecasting models works best. No single method gives you the full picture - you need different tools for different situations. All of this depends on your business model, sales cycle, etc. For the current quarter, weighted pipeline models deliver the most reliable results. But don't just use generic industry percentages - analyze your historical data to set accurate probabilities. Monitor your historicals and understand where se ...Read More