Setting KPIs can often feel arbitrary, especially when entering new markets. How do you get past this uncertainty to set realistic goals?

Setting KPIs should not feel arbitrary. That's a smell. It means that the people choosing those metrics or setting their targets don't clearly understand how they influence the business or the outcomes desired. Perhaps good modeling has never been done to demonstrate either correlation or causation. When it comes to entering new markets, my opinions change. My approach to leadership is to measure and model things that are known or knowable. Entirely new products or markets will, at best, be unde ...Read More

Early on, you will be arbitraging metrics. There’s no perfect KPI when you’re breaking new ground. The smart move is to pick something rational (based on your understanding of what customers want and how you're helping), instrument it, monitor whether optimizing moves the long‑term outcomes you care about, and then iterate. It’s almost always better to try, learn and adjust than to wait for discovering the perfect metric. The KPI’s main job early on is to generate insight, not to lock you into a ...Read More

+1 to arbitrary! I think setting goals for both new and existing markets may feel like excel magic, some numbers that are based on mainly assumptions and the product manager's gut. Its uncomfortable and may feel unscientific but I think all forward planning is like that.  I would address some uncertainity in the following way Make sure I am tracking the right metrics, New markets could mean new metrics, the business is starting from scratch and may be different from the metrics that a mature mar ...Read More

I would start by understanding what is the company being graded on by its investors and how is this new product going to deliver/contribute to that KPI. Let's say your investors are keen on seeing revenue growth this year. You can begin by benchmarking the lifetime revenue growth of the various product offerings of your company and then estimate (based on your user research/data) what will be the adoption rate for this new product area/market. You can then begin to model out some first year numb ...Read More

See question: “What are good OKRs for product management?” for a general introduction to the topic. Specifically when it comes to high level of uncertainty, it becomes particularly important to adopt strict scientific methodologies. Observe, formulate questions, make hypotheses, experiment and analyze data, formulates and communicate conclusions, and finally iterate. See question: “How do you approach setting crisp KPIs and targets for Engine features and linking them to your topline metrics?” f ...Read More

This is a great question. I am a fan of actually being ambitious and setting unrealistic targets or stretch goals and seeing where we end up in the first couple of reporting periods. To get a dose of realism, you can always reference analyst reports and right-size your total available market vs. serviceable market and current penetration into the new market. I don't advise setting realistic targets when entering new markets because that can lead to complacency instead of innovation. You can also ...Read More

When entering new markets, KPI setting feels arbitrary because data is scarce — but it doesn’t have to be guesswork. The key is to anchor goals in learning, not precision. Start with assumptions, not targets: define what success might look like (e.g., conversion, activation, retention) and set directional hypotheses — “If our messaging resonates, we should see X% activation within Y weeks.” Then, instrument early to gather data fast. Use small launches, benchmarks from adjacent markets, and earl ...Read More

KPIs can help identify that in a new market whether we have got the right product fit. This alone will allow to define the right metrics. The key goals could be Acquisition – how well are you getting customers to your site or app? Activation – are your customers having a great ‘first run’ experience? Retention – how often are your customers coming back? Referral – are they telling others about your product? Revenue – are they paying for your service? Identify the right KPIs that can give data to ...Read More