Setting KPIs can often feel arbitrary, especially when entering new markets. How do you get past this uncertainty to set realistic goals?

I’d set expectations upfront -- this is all new to us and our primary goal initially will be learning. Start with your hypotheses and treat your work as tests to help you learn faster with more structure. These investments upfront pay off in the long run, allowing you to validate / in-validate hypotheses before spending too much on something that wasn’t quite right, or doesn’t pan out.

Also, it can be helpful to set ranges and implications. If we achieve below X, we won’t invest further. If we achieve between X and Y, this will be our course of action. If we achieve Z, it clearly warrants further investment.

Such is life in business? At the risk of sounding like a corporate stiff, we must set markers to swim towards, otherwise we're just swimming in circles... So if the KPI feels arbitrary, narrow the scope or make the number smaller. If other stakeholders disagree, that's a different problem to solve.

We go by setting SMART goals (google it). It is a cheesy acronym but it works. It forces you to scrutinize and be honest with yourself and your team on the goal. And it will be realistic if all boxes can be checked across Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, Time-based.