Setting KPIs can often feel arbitrary, especially when entering new markets. How do you get past this uncertainty to set realistic goals?

Setting KPIs can indeed feel arbitrary, especially in new or uncertain markets. However, there are strategies to overcome this uncertainty and set realistic goals:

1. Market Research and Analysis: this shall help set goals for the organization's fiscal year.

2. Benchmarking: Compare yourself to industry standards and competitors to gain perspective on what success looks like in the new market. Analyze the performance of similar companies or products to set realistic benchmarks for your own goals.

3. Start with Baseline Data: Establish baseline data for key metrics such as market penetration, customer acquisition costs, and revenue targets. Use this data as a reference point for setting incremental goals and tracking progress over time.

4. Break Goals Down into Milestones: Break down overarching goals into smaller, achievable milestones. This makes goals more manageable and allows for more frequent monitoring and adjustment based on market feedback and performance.

5. Utilize Pilot Programs: Consider launching pilot programs or initiatives to test the waters in the new market before committing to larger-scale goals. Pilot programs can provide valuable insights and feedback that inform goal-setting decisions.

6. Set SMART Goals: Ensure that goals are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound (SMART). This framework helps ensure that goals are well-defined, realistic, and actionable.

7. Iterate Based on Feedback: Be prepared to iterate and adjust goals based on feedback and performance data. Stay agile and responsive to changes in the market environment, customer needs, and competitive landscape.

8. Involve Cross-Functional Teams: Involve cross-functional teams, including sales, marketing, product development, and customer success, in the goal-setting process. Collaboration ensures alignment across departments and increases buy-in for the goals.

By following these strategies, you can navigate the uncertainty of entering new markets and set realistic goals that align with your company's objectives and growth aspirations.

The important thing is to start measuring items. Your initial 'goal' may be off, but you won't know that until you start measuring it and having your team work towards a KPI. Be open with them that this is a trial period that nobody's performance will be managed based on if they hit the number out of the gate. And then adjust from there -- if people are overachieving, up the target; if people are consistently struggling to hit, lower the bar. Once you've found the sweet spot, then you can add compensation, performance management, etc. on top.