Setting KPIs can often feel arbitrary, especially when entering new markets. How do you get past this uncertainty to set realistic goals?

• See my answer on how I recommend setting targets - I think it's really really hard but really really important to get past the uncertainty, and set some kind of target. 
• In my 10+ years of building and launching demand generation programs, I honestly can't remember a time when I have wished I *didn't* at least try to set a target. I find most marketing leadership and startup leaders are flexible and understanding when you get a KPI wrong the first time. Don't make it a pattern though - because you want to build a reputation as someone who learns from past experiences and gets more accurate over time in forecasting. 
• The first step is building the forecasting muscle, and then you want to get good at forecasting accuracy. This is true of startups overall, going from a private company with a few investors to a public company with a ton of eyes and scrutiny on your performance. 

Some tips:

• Even if you are entering a new market, you are still likely selling a product or service to a person or group of people. There is a way to find some kind of comparable data or benchmark as a starting point. If you have TAM (total addressable market), you should be able to do some guessing as to your SAM (serviceable addressable market), and then take a look at what resourcing you have internally. If you are in a totally new space, but you only have 1 sales person so far, you aren't going to be able to capture 10% of the total market share in a quarter or two. 
• You should use tops-down (high-level business growth targets) and bottoms-up modeling to try to triangulate to a target.
• Another thing that I try to do in a situation where I don't have a ton of historical data or benchmarks to guide me is to build a few models: An aggressive model, a moderate model, and a conservative model. The best practice is to only change ONE assumption between those models. I like building simple calculators in excel or Google Sheets so that as you are reviewing with your stakeholders, you can make copies of the model and make changes in real-time and see what might change in your calculations. 

KPIs and OKRs should not be arbitrary. Developing strong OKRs/KPIs requires a lot of research both internally and externally. How did you company do in the past and what were those KPIs in the past? Based on where the company is today (employee count, sales coverage, target ICPs, etc) how much more effective is your team supposed to be? Then add 10% to that to ensure your goals are not too easy, but realistic, and aspirational. 

The realistic goals should also follow the SMART format (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound) which can be loosely based off of some industry benchmarks you can find online. 

I hear you. Depending on your business and how you implement and follow through on goals, it could feel arbitrary. However, even if that were the case, see the goal-setting process as a north star for your day-to-day work. It helps give your work additional meaning when you have a better understanding of the impact you are driving.

Focus on what is in your control and how you will measure it. When possible, segment it into milestones so it feels more accessible and realistic. When you think about it in its parts, every project can be reconciled against if it is driving towards the KPIs that you have set. If not, the project gets deprioritized.

My recommendation is to reframe the goal-setting process as a process that illustrates how your day-to-day ladders up to the overall company objectives and the impact your efforts drive. This is incredibly beneficial to you and your growth.

I hear you. Depending on your business and how you implement and follow through on goals, it could feel arbitrary. However, even if that were the case, see the goal-setting process as a north star for your day-to-day work. It helps give your work additional meaning when you have a better understanding of the impact you are driving.

Focus on what is in your control and how you will measure it. When possible, segment it into milestones so it feels more accessible and realistic. When you think about it in its parts, every project can be reconciled against if it is driving towards the KPIs that you have set. If not, the project gets deprioritized.

My recommendation is to reframe the goal-setting process as a process that illustrates how your day-to-day ladders up to the overall company objectives and the impact your efforts drive. This is incredibly beneficial to you and your growth.

I know that feeling for sure. I still think it's important to do.

• Establishing a baseline is important to give us feedback and future efforts to tell us if they're helping or not.

• I'm ok having stretching goals, and not hitting them. I wouldn't want all my goals to be stretching, but ok to have a few.

• If you're in a new marketing you can look to some industry bench marks or external peer input to help get an idea, and then go from there.

• If you're just getting started you might want to revisit/refresh your targets more frequently as you learn from what actually happens.

The answer to this question is bit tricky. The truth is, you don’t fully get past the uncertainty—but you can approach it in a structured way to reduce ambiguity and set realistic, adaptable goals. Here are a few strategies that might help:

1. Be comfortable with the known unknowns.
   Understand that uncertainty is part of the process when entering new markets. Acknowledge what you don’t know, and frame your initial KPIs as a starting point rather than fixed benchmarks. This mindset will help you and your stakeholders maintain flexibility while managing expectations.

2. Use historical data to establish a baseline.
   Even if your new market differs significantly from your past experiences, look for trends or outcomes in similar initiatives. For example, if you’ve launched a product in adjacent markets, examine how long it took to gain traction, what customer acquisition costs looked like, and other performance indicators. These insights can inform initial targets, even if they’re not an apples to apples comparison.

3. Look to the market and consider relevant or adjacent industry standards.
   Research competitors and analogous industries to identify benchmarks. For instance, if you're entering a B2B SaaS market, you might evaluate typical customer acquisition costs, sales cycles, or conversion rates in that sector. These industry norms can provide context and act as guardrails for setting KPIs.

4. Set expectations through transparent communication.
   Clearly articulate which aspects of your KPIs are based on industry best practices, historical data, or assumptions unique to your organization. By doing so, you ensure alignment and buy-in from key stakeholders while building a shared understanding that these goals may evolve.

5. Adjust at critical intervals as new data comes in.
   Treat your initial KPIs as a living document. Plan regular check-ins—perhaps quarterly or after major milestones—to review performance, incorporate new data, and refine your metrics. For example, after the first three months, you might find that conversion rates are trending higher but sales cycles are longer than expected. Use these insights to recalibrate.

Pro Tip:

Consider breaking KPIs into two categories:

• Exploratory KPIs: Metrics to test assumptions and validate early strategies (e.g., number of leads generated from a new channel).

• Operational KPIs: Metrics tied to execution and scale once you’ve identified successful tactics (e.g., cost per acquisition or retention rate).

By combining these two types of KPIs, you balance the need for experimentation with the need to deliver measurable outcomes.

You're right this is hard to do, and I'm sure you'd get different answers from different Demand Gen leaders. When you lack historical data for a given region to inform goal setting, the two most useful inputs are a) business objectives and b) comps from other regions where you are marketing to similar buyers.

Business objectives should inform your investment level, mix, and funnel metrics. For example, if you need to generate $1M in incremental bookings from the region by the end of your first year in that market and your typical sales cycle is 90-180 days, you know that you need to set MQL and pipeline targets in the first two quarters that provide sufficient coverage.

Comps from other regions can also be useful in forecasting CPL and setting appropriate goals by channel. For example, if you are running SEM campaigns in North America, you likely already have a sense of the average cost per acquisition from paid search. You can then use tools like Google Keyword Planner, Ahrefs, etc. to determine which of your campaigns will translate to the new markets you are entering based on search volume, estimated CPC, etc.