Setting KPIs can often feel arbitrary, especially when entering new markets. How do you get past this uncertainty to set realistic goals?

• See my answer on how I recommend setting targets - I think it's really really hard but really really important to get past the uncertainty, and set some kind of target. 
• In my 10+ years of building and launching demand generation programs, I honestly can't remember a time when I have wished I *didn't* at least try to set a target. I find most marketing leadership and startup leaders are flexible and understanding when you get a KPI wrong the first time. Don't make it a pattern though - because you want to build a reputation as someone who learns from past experiences and gets more accurate over time in forecasting. 
• The first step is building the forecasting muscle, and then you want to get good at forecasting accuracy. This is true of startups overall, going from a private company with a few investors to a public company with a ton of eyes and scrutiny on your performance. 

Some tips:

• Even if you are entering a new market, you are still likely selling a product or service to a person or group of people. There is a way to find some kind of comparable data or benchmark as a starting point. If you have TAM (total addressable market), you should be able to do some guessing as to your SAM (serviceable addressable market), and then take a look at what resourcing you have internally. If you are in a totally new space, but you only have 1 sales person so far, you aren't going to be able to capture 10% of the total market share in a quarter or two. 
• You should use tops-down (high-level business growth targets) and bottoms-up modeling to try to triangulate to a target.
• Another thing that I try to do in a situation where I don't have a ton of historical data or benchmarks to guide me is to build a few models: An aggressive model, a moderate model, and a conservative model. The best practice is to only change ONE assumption between those models. I like building simple calculators in excel or Google Sheets so that as you are reviewing with your stakeholders, you can make copies of the model and make changes in real-time and see what might change in your calculations. 

KPIs and OKRs should not be arbitrary. Developing strong OKRs/KPIs requires a lot of research both internally and externally. How did you company do in the past and what were those KPIs in the past? Based on where the company is today (employee count, sales coverage, target ICPs, etc) how much more effective is your team supposed to be? Then add 10% to that to ensure your goals are not too easy, but realistic, and aspirational. 

The realistic goals should also follow the SMART format (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound) which can be loosely based off of some industry benchmarks you can find online. 

I hear you. Depending on your business and how you implement and follow through on goals, it could feel arbitrary. However, even if that were the case, see the goal-setting process as a north star for your day-to-day work. It helps give your work additional meaning when you have a better understanding of the impact you are driving.

Focus on what is in your control and how you will measure it. When possible, segment it into milestones so it feels more accessible and realistic. When you think about it in its parts, every project can be reconciled against if it is driving towards the KPIs that you have set. If not, the project gets deprioritized.

My recommendation is to reframe the goal-setting process as a process that illustrates how your day-to-day ladders up to the overall company objectives and the impact your efforts drive. This is incredibly beneficial to you and your growth.

I hear you. Depending on your business and how you implement and follow through on goals, it could feel arbitrary. However, even if that were the case, see the goal-setting process as a north star for your day-to-day work. It helps give your work additional meaning when you have a better understanding of the impact you are driving.

Focus on what is in your control and how you will measure it. When possible, segment it into milestones so it feels more accessible and realistic. When you think about it in its parts, every project can be reconciled against if it is driving towards the KPIs that you have set. If not, the project gets deprioritized.

My recommendation is to reframe the goal-setting process as a process that illustrates how your day-to-day ladders up to the overall company objectives and the impact your efforts drive. This is incredibly beneficial to you and your growth.